Matchup Status (Week 14)
Games Completed (1)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 13.4 | 13.8 | 18.0 | -4.6 |
Games Pending (15)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 15.3 | 18.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 16.4 | 18.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 8.6 | 9.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 19.5 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.1 | 17.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | 6.1 | 4.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.6 | 17.5 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 12.1 | 6.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Opponent: Meat Pistols
Opponent Games Completed (1)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | ✓ 21.0 | 8.9 | +12.1 |
Opponent Games Pending (15)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | 17.9 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB | 5.3 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | 3.2 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR | 6.7 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | 8.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | 10.0 |
| DJ Moore | WR | RB/WR/TE | 9.1 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | 7.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | 14.7 |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 3.5 |
| Ray Davis (bench) | RB | BE | 2.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 |
Executive Summary
Week 14 brings a favorable slate with several smash spots. Bucky Irving returns from injury against the league's worst run defense in New Orleans, projecting for an 18-point boom week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the consensus WR1 against Atlanta's vulnerable secondary. The Thursday night game features Jameson Williams as Detroit's clear WR1 with Amon-Ra St. Brown sidelined. At 7-6 in 4th place, every point matters for playoff positioning - we're projected for 128.5 points against Meat Pistols' 74.8.
Key Insights
- Bucky Irving SMASH SPOT: Saints allow 5th-most rushing yards, gashed by Achane last week. Irving had 81 yards + TD on 52% snaps in Week 13 return.
- Jameson Williams WR1 role: With St. Brown OUT, Williams is the focal point vs Dallas (worst vs WRs). 7/144/1 on Thanksgiving.
- Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love: Love faces -15°F wind chill at Lambeau. Brissett's 70% boom rate and dome game safer.
- MHJ likely OUT: Missed Wed/Thu practice with heel injury. Cardinals eliminated - no rush to play.
- CAR/NE BYE: McMillan and Hunter Henry unavailable.
Recommended Starting Lineup
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 15.3 | 18.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | Unk | 16.4 | 18.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | CLE | 8.6 | 9.5 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 20.9 | 19.5 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | HOU | 17.1 | 17.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | DAL | 16.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Lineup Decisions
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Brissett 70% BOOM historical rate, Love at -15°F Lambeau. Brissett safer floor despite Rams pressure.
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Jordan Love - Thursday game locks in - Williams as WR1 with St. Brown OUT vs Cowboys worst WR defense.
XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 13.8 | 0.0 | BUST | 42.2% | 47.3% | 10.5% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 36.5% | 41.5% | 22.0% |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.1 | 17.5 | MODERATE | 25.3% | 49.8% | 24.9% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 18.6% | 52.2% | 29.2% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.6 | 17.5 | MODERATE | 17.5% | 73.7% | 8.8% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 15.3 | 18.0 | BOOM | 17.1% | 64.1% | 18.8% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.6 | 9.5 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 59.5% | 23.5% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 12.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 13.8% | 47.5% | 38.7% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 11.2% | 21.3% | 67.5% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.4 | 18.0 | BOOM | 11.0% | 47.6% | 41.3% |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 6.1 | 4.0 | BUST | 11.0% | 43.1% | 45.9% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 16.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 10.8% | 33.9% | 55.4% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 10.5 | 8.0 | BUST | 10.6% | 33.0% | 56.4% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | --- | 0.0 | BUST | 10.2% | 32.1% | 57.7% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 19.5 | MODERATE | 8.9% | 77.7% | 13.3% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | --- | 0.0 | BUST | 8.7% | 24.1% | 67.1% |
Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (16th vs QB). GB -6.5 favorite in shootout potential (44.5 total). Hot streak: 31/43 337yds 3TD Week 13. MODERATE mode [9.1-24.1]. Weather concern but dome-like for cold weather team. Selecting 17.5 in MODERATE range.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 9% (MEDIUM)
Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: XGB: 22% boom, 35% bust. vs LAR (10th vs QB). High game total (47.0). MC shows 70% BOOM mode! ARI +8 underdog = passing volume. LLM AGREES with MC BOOM selection despite XGB moderate signal. 18.0 in BOOM range [16.5-27.5].
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 10 | ECR: 8
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)
Bucky Irving (TB vs Unk)
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 61% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 41% bust. OVERRIDE XGB: Saints allow 5th most rush yds, gashed by Achane. Irving 81 yds + TD Week 13, 52% snaps. Selecting BOOM mode. 18.0 within BOOM range [16.3, 31.3].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 23
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 41% (MEDIUM)
Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 19% boom, 34% bust. vs CLE (8th vs RB - TOUGH). Low game total (33.5) = limited scoring. TEN +4.5 underdog = negative game script risk. MC MODERATE [5.3-13.3]. MODERATE 9.5 accounts for committee split with Pollard. Ceiling capped.
Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 8
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST, 40% MOD. XGB: 14% boom, 39% bust. INJURED status + PHI strong run defense. Selecting BUST mode. 6.0 within BUST range [0.2, 7.7].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)
Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 46% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs with limited touches. Cold weather game. Selecting BUST mode. 4.0 within BUST range [-1.4, 6.1].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 46% (MEDIUM)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 19.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 12% boom, 23% bust - MODERATE profile. @ATL (26th vs WR - SMASH spot). SEA -7 favorite = positive game script. Target leader for SEA. MC MODERATE [12-26]. Selecting 19.5 in MODERATE - consistent high floor.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 1
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 13% (MEDIUM)
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs Unk)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: BYE WEEK (CAR). No projection needed.
Context: Def Rank: 16
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: Missed practice Wed/Thu with heel injury. Cardinals eliminated from playoffs - no incentive to rush back. ESPN still shows 13.8 but LIKELY OUT. Setting to 0.0.
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 10% (MEDIUM)
Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 34% boom, 31% bust - VOLATILE. vs HOU (14th vs WR). KC -4.5 favorite. MC shows 47% BOOM probability but XGB more conservative. Selecting MODERATE mode [10.6-21.4] due to HOU decent secondary. 17.5 balanced projection.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 14 | ECR: 3
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)
Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)
Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: THURSDAY GAME vs DAL completed. XGB: 12% boom, 47% bust. High-scoring game (54.5 total). DAL 30th vs WR = BOOM spot. Note: Check actual score. MC MODERATE [8.9-21.1]. Projecting MODERATE 18.0.
Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16
MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 63% BUST (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. PHI allows 5th-fewest pts to WRs. Herbert hand injury limits deep shots. Selecting BUST mode. 8.0 within BUST range [3.2, 10.7].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 26% boom, 30% bust. @TB (18th vs TE). NO +8.5 underdog = passing volume for garbage time. MC BOOM mode at 36%! But selecting MODERATE [5.7-12.3] due to low team total (17.0 implied). 10.0 in MODERATE range.
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 6
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)
Hunter Henry ( vs )
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: BYE WEEK (NE). No projection needed.
MC (Historical): BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 67% (MEDIUM)
Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 17.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 9%
Notes: XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (16th vs QB). GB -6.5 favorite in shootout potential (44.5 total). Hot streak: 31/43 337yds 3TD Week 13. MODERATE mode [9.1-24.1]. Weather concern but dome-like for cold weather team. Selecting 17.5 in MODERATE range.
Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs Unk
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58%
Notes: BYE WEEK (CAR). No projection needed.
Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 10%
Notes: Missed practice Wed/Thu with heel injury. Cardinals eliminated from playoffs - no incentive to rush back. ESPN still shows 13.8 but LIKELY OUT. Setting to 0.0.
Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 39%
Notes: MC: 29% BUST, 40% MOD. XGB: 14% boom, 39% bust. INJURED status + PHI strong run defense. Selecting BUST mode. 6.0 within BUST range [0.2, 7.7].
Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 4.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 46%
Notes: MC: 49% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 46% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs with limited touches. Cold weather game. Selecting BUST mode. 4.0 within BUST range [-1.4, 6.1].
Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 56%
Notes: MC: 63% BUST (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. PHI allows 5th-fewest pts to WRs. Herbert hand injury limits deep shots. Selecting BUST mode. 8.0 within BUST range [3.2, 10.7].
Hunter Henry (TE) - vs
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 67%
Notes: BYE WEEK (NE). No projection needed.
High Threat Players (>35% Boom)
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 36% boom probability
Opponent Starter Analysis
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 20.1 | 36% | 56% | 8% | HIGH | |
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.2 | 30% | 52% | 18% | MEDIUM | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 11.9 | 19% | 69% | 12% | LOW | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 7.8 | 15% | 27% | 58% | LOW | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 9.2 | 14% | 76% | 11% | LOW | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 7.5 | 13% | 20% | 68% | LOW | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 0.0 | 13% | 36% | 51% | LOW | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 8.9 | 11% | 18% | 71% | LOW | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 9.6 | 10% | 28% | 62% | LOW | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 6.3 | 10% | 50% | 40% | LOW |
Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 36% | Bust 8%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 18%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 19% | Bust 12%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 58%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 11%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 68%)
Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 71%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 62%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 40%)
Top Free Agents by Boom Potential
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 6.1 | 44% | 18% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 11.8 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.7 | 40% | 15% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 9.3 | 37% | 11% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.1 | 33% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 5.8 | 29% | 25% | 0.0% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.0 | 28% | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.2 | 28% | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 8.8 | 23% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 8.7 | 22% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.7 | 19% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 9.7 | 19% | 28% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Evan McPherson | K | 8.4 | 17% | 59% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 17.2 | 17% | 36% | 0.0% |
QB Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 17.2 | BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% | 17% | 36% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.5 | BUST:39%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 16% | 39% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 13% | 41% |
RB Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11.8 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% | 42% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.7 | BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% | 40% | 15% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 33% | |
| Devin Neal | 8.7 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% | 22% | 48% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10.9 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% | 14% | 47% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.1 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 56% |
WR Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.2 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% | 28% | 33% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.7 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% | 19% | 38% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.4 | BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% | 13% | 61% | |
| Tre Tucker | 9.9 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% | 9% | 43% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.5 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 0% | 0% |
TE Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 9.3 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% | 37% | 11% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 8.8 | BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% | 23% | 21% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.4 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 9% | 59% |
Streaming Options
K Streamers
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.1 | 33% | 48% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 9.7 | 19% | 28% | |
| Evan McPherson | 8.4 | 17% | 59% |
D/ST Streamers
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 6.1 | 44% | 18% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 5.8 | 29% | 25% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% |
Monte Carlo Projection Report
Matchup Summary
Win Probability
Margin Distribution (80% Range)
Floor: -10.2 pts | Median: +29.2 pts | Ceiling: +67.2 pts
Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | QUESTIONABLE | 12.2 | Sam LaPorta | 11.9 |
Opponent Lineup Scenarios
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 89.6 | 83.3% | +28.5 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 91.4 | 81.2% | +27.1 |
My Team
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 18.0 | 4.3-28.1 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 12% |  |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 18.0 | 4.4-24.2 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 11% |  |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.5 | 2.1-19.7 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 26% |  |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 19.5 | 5.6-29.7 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 7% |  |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 17.5 | 7.1-28.2 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% |  |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 13.4 | 4.1-25.7 | ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% |  |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.6-17.2 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 24% |  |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.0-17.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 44% |  |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 4.5-16.5 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 13% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 17.5 | 6.5-28.1 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% |  |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 2.6-24.1 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 22% |  |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 4.0 | 0.4-21.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 45% |  |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.9-25.9 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 11% |  |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.3-21.6 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 19% |  |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 4.4-25.8 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 15% |  |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.1-22.0 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% |  |
Opponent
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 20.2 | 9.9-31.3 | ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Nick Chubb | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.6-15.9 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 43% |  |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 7.7 | 0.4-17.1 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 43% |  |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 11.8 | 4.2-22.7 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% |  |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.5-19.0 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.3 | 2.1-15.6 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% |  |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 9.6 | 2.7-18.6 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 29% |  |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.3 | 0.0-20.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 60% |  |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.3-16.3 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.4-26.7 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 17% |  |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.3 | 11.5-35.0 | ↑15+: 72% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.1-20.9 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% |  |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.2-15.9 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% |  |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.6-20.0 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 20% |  |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-15.6 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 47% |  |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 1.9-15.6 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
Scenario Details
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 22% @ 23.8 | 61% @ 14.0 | 17% @ 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 23% @ 29.4 | 43% @ 18.6 | 34% @ 7.2 | 17.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 47% @ 24.2 | 29% @ 15.7 | 25% @ 7.9 | 17.8 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 18% @ 20.4 | 61% @ 8.9 | 20% @ 3.0 | 9.8 |
| Jason Myers | K | 22% @ 15.9 | 44% @ 11.2 | 34% @ 5.8 | 10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 36% @ 14.7 | 35% @ 9.2 | 28% @ 3.6 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 26% @ 24.0 | 41% @ 15.2 | 33% @ 5.6 | 14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 70% @ 21.7 | 5% @ 14.8 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 23% @ 16.3 | 40% @ 8.0 | 37% @ 1.3 | 7.5 |
Waiver Wire Notes
No urgent adds needed. Monitor Chiefs D/ST (44% boom) if Rams struggle. Harold Fannin Jr. (23% boom, 21% bust) is a solid TE stash.
Injury Concerns
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (LIKELY OUT): Heel injury, missed practice Wed/Thu
- Omarion Hampton (INJURED): Playing Monday but limited
- Bucky Irving (ACTIVE): Shoulder limited in practice but will play
ESPN Projection Accuracy
XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration
LLM vs ESPN Comparison
Data Quality & Discrepancies
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
Week 14 Discrepancy Log
No discrepancies detected this week.